News, Cops, and statistics

I just read an article that bothers me. I see these sorts of things from time to time, especially during the holiday season. It is one of those fluff pieces about the cops are going to be on the lookout for holiday drinkers that are driving impaired. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16281438/ for reference)

Now, obviously I don't have a problem with the cops trying to catch people drinking and driving. That's great. The issue that I have is the statistics quoted. In the above article: "...estimates that 14 people may die on Alabama roads over the 78-hour Christmas travel period..." That sounds pretty grave, right? 14 people, that's WAY above what can normally be expected, right?

Wrong.

A quick web search revealed this document: http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/whd2004/profiles/Alabama.pdf A publication of the CDC reguarding unintentional deaths in Alabama in 1999 - 2001. For that two year peroid (I know it doesn't "look" like a two year period, but from the numbers presented in the document, it definitely is (eg a 9706 total is then displayed as 4853 per year)), there were a total of 3193 unintentional motor vehicle related deaths. Half of that is makes roughly an average of 1596 deaths per year. Divide by 365, gives about 4.4 deaths per day.

Now, how long was that stated "Christmas travel period" above? It is stated as 78 hours. Divide that by 24, yields 3.25 days of travel. What's 3.25 times 4.4? 14.3

So, that means from the data I have in front of me, ANY 78 hour period in Alabama will average 14.3 highway deaths. The new article and/or the police deliberately mislead the readers into thinking that Christmas travel is SO much more dangerous.

Unless we are readers take the time to call out our news sources on issues like these, we will continue to be lead in any direction the powers that be want to take us.